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Monday, November 21, 2016

Probabilities of A Hemisphere Destroying CME from the Sun -- Easy to Calculate From Actual Data

I was a bit surprised that we have such detailed knowledge of our Star's CME activity.
Data from SECCHI-A Satelite

Although the study period is not long enough to Capture super large events like the Carrington Event, probability and statistics can be modeled to give a very good risk model for a massive CME hitting earth.  

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My gut says we have about a 1 to 2% chance per year of getting knocked back to the stone age,
probably Billions of people dead in months.

We could harder the USA electric grid to incur much less damage, for around $2B.    But instead, the annual bonuses to wall street exceed $100B.     Or about $2b per week.  

Yet we hurtle through space, unprotected from CME, strapped like a suicide bomber with 400 nuclear plants ready to melt down in a large scale grid down scenario.

That 3 pound Monkey Brain ain't working out so well

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http://secchi.nrl.navy.mil/index.php

SECCHI-A

CMEs detected by Cactus

:Issued: Sun Nov 20 20:43:26 2016
:Product: CACTus catalogue (http://sidc.be/cactus)
#----------------------------------------------------------------------
# Instrument: SECCHI| Detector: cor2
# Threshold : 0.30 | Factor : 6 | Minimal CME width: 5
#
first cor2: 2016/10/31  00:24:00.006 20161031_002400_04c2A.fts
last  cor2: 2016/11/18  23:54:00.006 20161118_235400_04c2A.fts
#
#----------------------------------------------------------------------
# Output: Detected cmemap with the following characteristics:
#
#    CME: CME number
#   Flow: Flow number. Flows are suspicious detections, their color in the detectionmap is dark blue
#     t0: onset time, earliest indication of liftoff
#    dt0: duration of liftoff (hours)
#     pa: principal angle, counterclockwise from North (degrees)
#     da: angular width (degrees),
#      v: median velocity (km/s)
#     dv: variation (1 sigma) of velocity over the width of the CME
#  mindv: lowest velocity detected within the CME
#  maxdv: highest velocity detected within the CME
#  halo?: II if da>90, III if da>180, IV if da>270, indicating potential halo/partial halo CME
#

# CME |          t0    | dt0| pa | da |  v  |  dv | minv| maxv| halo?
  0025|2016/11/17 04:54| 02 | 066| 022| 0625| 0081| 0625| 0781|
  0024|2016/11/15 22:54| 03 | 235| 008| 0297| 0188| 0198| 0625|
  0023|2016/11/15 10:24| 03 | 066| 010| 0143| 0027| 0122| 0186|
  0022|2016/11/15 08:24| 06 | 053| 028| 0186| 0042| 0120| 0265|
  0021|2016/11/15 02:54| 02 | 081| 016| 0255| 0043| 0195| 0320|
  0020|2016/11/14 21:24| 02 | 080| 010| 0390| 0007| 0390| 0403|
  0019|2016/11/13 11:54| 04 | 083| 012| 0192| 0017| 0181| 0227|
  0018|2016/11/12 19:24| 02 | 264| 014| 0410| 0059| 0357| 0543|
  0017|2016/11/10 21:54| 03 | 092| 066| 0373| 0037| 0290| 0446|
  0016|2016/11/10 20:54| 02 | 085| 008| 0284| 0040| 0240| 0347|
  0015|2016/11/10 14:24| 03 | 249| 040| 0373| 0064| 0290| 0520|
  0014|2016/11/10 13:53| 05 | 259| 020| 0290| 0027| 0250| 0347|
  0013|2016/11/09 18:53| 08 | 087| 040| 0197| 0032| 0132| 0255|
  0012|2016/11/09 13:24| 02 | 232| 014| 0331| 0077| 0240| 0499|
  0011|2016/11/09 04:24| 01 | 108| 018| 0556| 0072| 0446| 0657|
  0010|2016/11/09 00:54| 02 | 287| 056| 0543| 0128| 0328| 0735|
  0009|2016/11/08 19:54| 01 | 266| 018| 0476| 0129| 0284| 0694|
  0008|2016/11/06 07:24| 02 | 072| 014| 0439| 0161| 0312| 0694|
  0007|2016/11/05 13:24| 03 | 287| 024| 0521| 0212| 0186| 0892|
  0006|2016/11/05 04:54| 05 | 321| 156| 0304| 0051| 0201| 0416|  II
  0005|2016/11/05 03:54| 07 | 119| 028| 0312| 0126| 0178| 0595|
  0004|2016/11/04 22:24| 04 | 082| 014| 0582| 0021| 0568| 0625|
  0003|2016/11/01 14:54| 06 | 107| 036| 0231| 0055| 0131| 0337|
  0002|2016/10/31 18:54| 03 | 069| 020| 0337| 0020| 0320| 0378|
  0001|2016/10/31 00:54| 02 | 089| 032| 0781| 0066| 0694| 0892|
# Flow|          t0    | dt0| pa | da |  v  |  dv | minv| maxv| halo?

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