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Monday, February 29, 2016

Earthquake Alert -- "The Big One With Tsunami" Pacific Region

About a month back we started covering the possibility of "The Big One" hitting California, maybe the Upper West Coast USA, and some chance of a Yellowstone Eruption.

There was some buoy data that indicated a large drop in ocean floor levels.  There was also some claim of a massive CO release on West Coast USA that is scientifically proven to at least sometimes proceed a big quake.   It took a few hours of work to debunk that one, but you can see the details below.

And there were periods of intense quietness in terms of number of earthquakes per day.

That trend of low EQ counts continues to today.    Normally there are 71 to 73 EQ over 2.5 per day across the world.    We have lately seen as little as 20, with many days being around 30 and only once in a while above 40.   

So that means that something is "stuck" and there is energy building up for a possible large Earthquake (EQ).     

We have also seen some unusual activity, such as numerous over 5 EQ at the mid Atlantic ridge, numerous small quakes near the Volcano on Hawaii.    Indonesia has also had an extremely quiet 2 months, but lately quite  few 5.0 range.   That is "good" as it relieves stress, but keep in mind, prior to the Great Japan earthquake they had a swarm of 5.0 range EQ.    And Japan is certainly not "off the hook" as they restart nuclear plants that have been sitting for 5 years, have been poorly inspected, and having emergency shutdowns.   

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NEW INFORMATION: Apparently the CO levels were not real and were caused by a change in
some sensors and calculation method, so they say.

Ground level CO monitors show things as being pretty normal and safe.
http://www.baaqmd.gov/about-air-quality/current-air-quality/air-monitoring-data?DataViewFormat=monthly&DataView=aqi&StartDate=2/1/2016&ParameterId=13




2 hours after I wrote a letter to a specific NASA individual, they put out an update----kind of LOL
https://earthdata.nasa.gov/terra-status-update-1-mar-2016

Terra Status Update

News Date: 1 March 2016
Terra MODIS was transitioned to science mode on February 24, 2016 (day 055) after being in safe mode since February 18, 2016 (day 049).
Though the data is currently being acquired and processed at MODAPS and Near Real-Time (NRT), users are advised to exercise caution in using the products in any application. Products from period 055 – 058 might have been severely degraded due to abnormal operating temperature for the SWIR (Short-wave infrared) and LWIR (Long-wave infrared) Focal Plane Assembly (FPA) hence products may not be usable in any application. Though the focal plane temperatures have reached the stable operating value as of day 060, some products may still have been impacted by the increased noise in some of the detectors in the thermal bands.
Users are requested to exercise caution in using the products until further notice.
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freaking hours of searching, aiyaiyai, but I buy it
2016-02-26T18:30:00Z
Terra spacecraft entered safe mode at 14:33:17 GMT on 2016/049 during an inclination adjustment maneuver (IAM). This caused the MODIS to enter safe mode as well with the nadir and the space-view doors closed. The spacecraft was recovered from the Safe-Mode to normal mode on 2/22/2016 and subsequently the MODIS instrument was successfully transitioned to science mode on 2/24/2016. No instrument data was available for the period 2016/049 – 2016/054. Though available data was acquired and processed at MODAPS and NRT, data products are severely degraded and are not expected to meet science quality since the SMIR and LWIR focal plane temperatures haven’t reached the normal operating value. Users are advised to refrain from using the product in any application until further notice.
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/news/?id=1-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://macc.copernicus-atmosphere.eu/catalogue/#list?st=Air%20quality%20and%20atmospheric%20composition&pp=Reactive%20gas&sp=CO&pt=Analysis&ga=Global
This is another CO predicting and monitoring site, from Europe but they cover the whole globe.
They also showed high level along US west coast BUT I am not sure their data source, maybe its the same data source and algorithm. So I emailed them to ask-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here is an animated GIF showing the "dilution"

http://img.oftechandlearning.com/2016/03/loop-carbon-monoxide-data-western-north-america-nullschool-earth-february-2016.gif


OLD INFORMATION---Now any even "weirder" but scary correlation with an earlier major earthquake.    CO levels shown at massive levels on whole West Coast.
And unusual EQs at Hawaii, Yellowstone, and the mid Atlantic Ridge

So we STILL THINK chances of a big EQ are elevated even if the CO was an amazing coincidence false alarm.   Amazing coincidences do indeed happen, in numbers beyond what statistics would deem "reasonable".

https://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2016/02/29/mauna-loa-earths-largest-active-volcano-is-still-stirring/



Abstract NOAA AVHRR images have clearly shown anomalous changes in land surface temperature associated with earthquakes in the past two decades. Soon after the Gujarat earthquake of January 26, 2001, an anomalous increase in land surface temperature was inferred from MODIS satellite data a few days prior to the main earthquake event. The cause of such an anomalous change in surface temperature prior to the earthquake is attributed to many probable phenomena, but no definite cause has been identified. In the present study, changes of a complementary nature were found of land surface temperature associated with the emission of CO from the epicentral region. The observed changes on land and atmosphere associated with the Gujarat earthquake of 26 January, 2001, show the existence of strong coupling between land, atmosphere and ionosphere.
\

From a Nature India Article, more details than just the Abstract

doi:10.1038/nindia.2010.13 Published online 15 February 2010

Carbon monoxide may signal earthquake

K. S. Jayaraman












Ramesh Singh.
Earth emits a burst of carbon monoxide (CO) a few days before an earthquake, according to geophysicist Ramesh Singh. He and co-workers from France and the United States report that this gas could be used as one of the precursor signals for an earthquake early warning system.
The scientists used data from an American satellite and analysed changes in carbon monoxide at different altitudes. "The carbon monoxide shows enhancement in concentration a few days prior to the earthquake," Singh said.
Singh, who was formerly with the Indian Institute of Technology in Kanpur, is currently in the physics department of Chapman University in California, USA. The project was funded by the Indo-French Centre for the Promotion of Advanced Research in New Delhi.
The researchers discovered the connection between CO emission and earthquake by analysing satellite remote sensing data collected around the time when a 7.6 magnitude earthquake shook Gujarat in western India nine years ago killing about 20,000 people and rendering thousands homeless.
Singh said that CO levels were taken by an instrument onboard NASA's Terra satellite — launched in 2009 — circling the earth in a polar orbit at a height of 705 km. The instrument measures CO concentrations at different heights and also computes the total amount of the gas in a vertical column of air above the earth surface.
Analysis of the satellite data showed a large peak in CO concentrations during January 19 and 20 — a week before the main earthquake event. On January 19, the total CO in the vertical column was also higher than usual. After the 26 January earthquake the concentration of the gas dropped.
According to the scientists, CO gas is forced out of the earth due to the build up of stress prior to the earthquake "influencing the hydrological regime around the epicentre."
Singh said an anomalous increase in land surface temperature a few days prior to Gujarat earthquake — as inferred from the data of NASA's other satellite MODIS — is also related to the CO emission. "The increase of column CO and concentrations of CO may have enhanced the land surface temperature," he said.
"The anomalous changes in CO concentrations prior to the main earthquake event and enhancement of temperature of the earth surface observed from MODIS satellite data give an indication of coupling between land and atmosphere," the scientists report. Singh said observation by other researchers of a sudden increase in water vapour in the atmosphere and changes in the ionosphere a few days prior to the Gujarat earthquake all seem to be connected.
According to the report, all these observations including the latest discovery of CO emission show the existence of a 'strong coupling' between land-atmosphere-ionosphere. "The integration of all these parameters in a seismically active region therefore looks a potential approach to understand earthquake processes and may provide reliable information about an impending earthquake," the researchers conclude.

References

  1. Singh, R.P. et al. Satellite detection of carbon monoxide emission prior to the Gujarat earthquake of 26 January 2001. Appl. Geochem. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeochem.2010.01.014 (2010)
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  4.  www.esrl.noaa.gov/http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/mpeg/latest_1024_0211.mp4

http://www.arb.ca.gov/aqmis2/display.php?param=CO&units=007&statistic=DMAX&year=2016&mon=2&day=29&county_name=--COUNTY--&basin=--AIR+BASIN--&latitude=C-Central&report=7DAY&order=basin%2Ccounty_name%2Cs.name&submit=Retrieve+Data&ptype=aqd

13 comments:

  1. Big One hits and a million people die. If the well beyond design basis earthquake knocks out Diablo Canyon, it would have to be such a massive earthquake that maybe 5-10 million will have perished. The point is the nuclear plant is designed to withstand x, and 10000x hits, then why squawk? There will be more pressing issues. Plus the concrete containment of a PWR ensures no Fukushima.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Something is cooking and only time will tell the full extent of what the result will be.

    How about this for a idea to consider: The Fukushima radiation has "leaked" into the plates offshore and causing an imbalance between them which is affecting the Pacific rim plates and especially those along the West Coast of North America.

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  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Loosey, you are ill informed ... Diablo and San O. are both cracking apart from old age already and cannot withstand quakes over 6M. It is in the e-mails, troll.

      Delete
    2. Ya missFrill, I am sure you noted the arrogance and denial of the troll. I have seen that card played several times in the last few days....must be a new playbook issuance for the troll squad.

      Simply stated their new lie is that any PWR is inherently safe and no problems, they are not like BWRs

      Aiyaiyai, these scientists who do not look out for the public interest shall one day be faced with a Nuremberg type trial.

      Delete
  4. If the Cascadia fault ruptures and it produces the tsunami for the west coast of the US, Where does the wave go that travels west from the rupture? Well, JAPAN, of course. ( like they need another big wave to wash all of the nuke residue off the land,) Imagine if the scientists are wrong about their assessment about this quake being a 9.2 and it comes in at a 14! All of the nuke plants along the west coast will be toast! I can also imagine the main stream media will be silent about it until after the elections, lol

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    Replies
    1. Indeed, Cali quakes have in the far past severely damaged Japan.

      Now picture 1000000 black bags with radiation contamination floating across the ocean.

      Delete
  5. M7.9 - Southwest of Sumatra, Indonesia
    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us10004u1y#general_region

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. nuke plant across the way - at the bottom of India -
      has lots of nuke waste and SPFs too!
      http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/india/kalpakkam.htm

      Delete
    2. missFrill, ya thats a big one. I kind of thought Indonesia was off the hook. They have been very low on EQ counts in the last 2 months, but then had a bunch of 5 range that I thought would have relieved the stresses. But when one area moves big like that....others will follow, even across the Pacific, and especially across the Pacific.

      Delete
  6. Lucy Troll, let's pretend Calif. NPPs all got a structural upgrade and all new piping and were rock solid and able to withstand a 9M quake (science fiction here).
    In a massive tsunami/quake regular electricity would be out for weeks if not months.
    The nuclear disasters would follow because back up generators have mere hours or time.
    Due to mud clogging issues most won't last 1 HOUR.
    And roads, ports to bring in new ones will be ruined plus there may be no suicide-staff left to put them in place.

    http://flyingcuttlefish.files.wordpress.com/2016/02/nrc311mailc.jpg

    mud problem & more here:
    http://flyingcuttlefish.wordpress.com/2016/02/06/nrc-emails/

    source - NRC e-mails .... from THEM not us, troll!

    ReplyDelete
  7. What do you think about last earthquakes that happen in areas prone to earthquakes such as Ecuador and Japan? They happen almost the same day.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is a momentum energy transfer that causes that.

      Delete

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