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Sunday, June 21, 2015

Decay Heat Calculations, Will Fukushima Heat Up The Pacific Ocean?

PhilipUpNorth posed an interesting question on ENENEWS.     What is the decay heat for 3 reactor cores in BTU?

I have pondered pondering this question.   And today I endeavored to stop pondering and start contributing.


Then as an added bonus, I shall divy up those BTUs across the volume of the Pacific and I can tell you how much the Pacific would heat up if all of those BTUs went into the Pacific.

OK Weighing in with the answer.     Fukushima, no matter what reactor fuel or spent fuel may have got into the ocean , or transmitted it's decay heat into the ocean, will not matter a hill of beans in increasing the temperature of the ocean. 

Two Cases:

1) If the radiation spreads evenly through the whole Pacific



2) What if the radiation stays in the top 200 feet and over a limited portion of north hemisphere Pacific Ocean?    Still almost nothing.


Want to dig further, check the results?   Here is my spreadsheet.


https://app.box.com/s/h6zg1whk5je785hx2t62qcqqe4th50s8

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Did Fukushima heat up the USA?   This chart indicates not any immediate effect in 2011, but there a very unusual spike up in USA temps in 2012, which could very well indicate a Fukushima impact.

The standard deviation of temperature anomalies in the USA 1979 to 2014 is
0.870928 deg F
The anomalies exactly 1 year after Fukushima was
3.293 deg F


That is 3.78 standard deviations away from "normal" 
http://pages.stat.wisc.edu/~ifischer/Statistical_Tables/Z-distribution.pdf

The odds that the temperature spike was just random are 0.00008 (see link above)




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Most of my information is coming from Oak Ridge
http://info.ornl.gov/sites/publications/files/Pub31857.pdf

 Hint, Part of the fuel is Oxygen, roughly 12% by weight, so we need to multiply the gross weight of fuel by 0.88 to get weight of heavy metal.


4 comments:

  1. Thank You For The INFO. Sadly The Nuclear Killing Will Go On For 250,000 Years From This One Disaster. They All Add Up, & We All Know From The Lies We've Been Told.. That The Next Nuclear Disaster Is A Mathematical Certainty! Thank You For All Your Work Sir

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. De nada.

      yes it is kind of a sick way to look at things.....but the only thing that can save us from long term nuclear, is another disaster to create a tipping point.

      Delete
  2. You havnt added the fact that a ocean that cant contain lifewill natually heat up

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What is your theory on that mechanism?

      Delete

Insightful and Relevant if Irreverent Comments